New prediction model for colon cancer recurrence

2021-08-31

Researchers at IGP have together with Norwegian colleagues developed a model for predicting the risk for recurrence after colon cancer surgery that is more accurate than previous models. The aim is that doctors could use the model when they discuss treatment options with their patients.

Colon cancer is on of the most common cancers in the world but improved therapy and care has in the recent decades resulted in better prognosis and survival. To assess the recurrence risk after colon cancer surgery, the doctor can use a prediction model which can also guide the decisions about adjuvant chemotherapy following the surgery.

Currently used prediction models were developed from patient material that was collected more than 10 to 20 years ago and are therefore probably not representative of the today’s care. In the present study, the researchers have created a new, updated prediction model based on data from almost 12 000 patients.

“We used data from the nationwide Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry and created something called a nomogram where factors such as sex, tumour classification and tumour location result in different point. The total points correspond to the predicted recurrence risk,” says Erik Osterman, doctoral student at IGP and first author of the paper.

The researchers validated the model by applying it to data from the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Registry and found that it could predict the recurrence risk better than previous models. It performed particularly well for low-risk patient groups, which is good since it could be most beneficial in these cases.

“For patients with a low risk for disease recurrence one has to consider the risk-benefit ratio when planning potential chemotherapy after surgery. In such cases the need for an accurate prediction model is the largest. We hope that the new model can be used by doctors when they discuss treatment options with their patients,” says Erik Osterman.

The study has been published in the journal Acta Oncologica.

More information
Paper in Acta Oncologica
Erik Osterman’s research in Tobias Sjöblom’s research group